The much-awaited exit poll conducted by C-Voter for ABP News indicates that Congress, the main opposition party in Karnataka, is tantalisingly close to achieving simple majority in the southern state which went to the polls on Wednesday.The election results will be declared on May 13.
Contrary to earlier projections and many forecasts by political analysts, the ruling BJP is doing much better than expected, though it is trailing the Congress and is unlikely to remain in power.The third force in this triangular contest, the JD(S) is projected to be a distant third and appears to be in danger of becoming a marginal player in the state.
As per the ABP/C-Voter Exit Poll data, the Congress is likely to win between 100 and 112 seats in the elections.A party needs 113 seats for a simple majority in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly.
The Congress had won 80 seats in the 2018 Assembly elections.As per the exit poll data, the Congress is projected to get 41.1 per cent of the vote share, which is up 3.1 per cent as compared to its share in the 2018 elections.
The surprise is the projected performance of the ruling BJP.The C-Voter opinion polls conducted in March and April had indicated strong anti-incumbency sentiments against the BJP government.But the party seems to have recovered.
As per the exit poll data, the BJP is projected to win between 83 and 95 seats.
In 2018, the party had won 104 seats.The projected vote share for the BJP is 38.3 per cent, which is 2.3 pert cent better than its 2018 vote share of 36 per cent.
With both the Congress and the BJP gaining in vote share, the loser seems to be JD(S).The vote share for the party is projected to be at 14.6 per cent, which is a 3.4 per cent decline compared to 2018.The party is projected to win between 21 and 29 seats.
In an another exit poll survey, the Congress has a clear edge and the grand old party may breach the half way mark.
The exit poll was conducted by South First media called South First-Peoples Pulse 2023.
The Exit Poll shows that Congress could get 42 percent of the vote share, with projected seats of 107 to 119.The Congress’ vote share is projected to increase by 4 percent compared to its 2018 figure.
The South First Exit Poll carried out on polling day shows that incumbent BJP could win in a range of 78 to 90 seats with a projected vote share of 36 percent.
The poll shows that while the BJP may not lose much vote share, it is set to lose several seats.The third major party in Karnataka — the JD(S) — is predicted to win in a range of 23 to 29 seats in the elections.
The regional party is projected to get 14 to 16 percent vote share.
The Exit Poll also predicts that smaller parties and independents could win one to three seats in Karnataka, with a combined vote share of 6 percent.
The Karnataka election Exit Poll also show that the Congress party’s Siddaramaiah remains top choice for chief minister, with 42 percent of the respondents choosing him for the top post.
The margin of error for South First-Peoples Pulse Exit Poll is plus or minus 2 percent.
The Exit Poll survey was conducted on polling day, Wednesday, 10 May, by Peoples Pulse Research Organization for South First.
The survey was carried out in 56 Assembly segments selected on the basis of the Probability Proportional Methodology (PPS).
Samples were collected from 168 polling stations in 56 assembly segments.In each polling station, 15-20 samples were collected.
A total of 3,024 samples were collected such that the sample reflects the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age.Gender was given equal representation.
It is pertinent to mention that Peoples Pulse conducted the first pre-poll survey in Karnataka from 22 to 31 December, 2022.The second pre-poll survey was conducted from 25 March to 10 April, 2023.
The Third and final pre-poll survey was conducted after withdrawl of nomination from 1 May to 5 May, 2023.
The final pre-poll survey carried out by Peoples Pulse for South First in Karnataka projected that the Congress could win 105 to 117 seats out of the total 224 seats in Karnataka.
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