By Sanjeev Sharma New Delhi, Dec 5, : .China’s total power dropped for the first-time in four editions the Asia Power Index.The country lost ground in half the Index’s measures in 2021, ranging from diplomatic and cultural influence, to economic capability, and future resources.
According to the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index this contrasts with the previous year when Beijing was diplomatically less affected by the pandemic, but was still holding steady in overall power, and with 2019, when it made the largest gains in the region.
“Based on current trends, Beijing is less likely to be ahead of its peer competitor in total power by the end the decade.” This report stated that China’s rise in the global arena is not inevitable.
As policy directions change and the circumstances change, it is possible for both America and China to shift their relative power in different areas of power, including military spending.It seems unlikely that China will ever be as dominant in the future as it was once, given the range of possible outcomes, it said.
However, China’s rise relative the United States in a highly contested strategic environment is more fragile than many people may believe, even those in the one party state.
With the introduction of Covid-19, a greater emphasis on economic self-sufficiency has been added to the overall inward turn.This has harmed China’s relative advantage elsewhere.
China, for example, saw more non-resident visitors to the region in 2019 than any other country.This includes business travellers, students, and tourists.China has implemented one of the most stringent systems of quarantine and border control in the world to combat the pandemic.
This has had a significant impact on international travel to and fro China, with a knock-on effect of people-to-people connections with the region — a key driver for the country’s cultural influence.
According to the report, China’s inward turn seems to have also depressed its diplomatic power.
In 2021, the United States narrowly overtook Beijing’s pole position in this measure.Despite the intense pace of diplomatic activity in the region by high ranking Beijing officials, President Xi Jinping has not left China for nearly two years.
The Index’s regional expert survey of leaders in the United States, Russia, and Singapore ranked his leadership on the international stage this past year higher than the leaders from Singapore.
China has lost more ground in the future resources measure than anywhere else.
The country’s prospects are being hampered by a growing number of structural weaknesses.These include a rapidly aging population, water scarcity in certain areas of the country and vulnerability to flooding elsewhere, a heavy debt burden, and a political structure that spends more money on projecting power inwards, for internal security challenges, rather than on projecting it outsidewards on military expenditure.
At current exchange rates, China’s economy will likely surpass that of the United States.However, China’s growth rate beyond 2030 is limited by inherent limitations.
In the coming decades, there will be significant domestic challenges.There are few policy options that can reverse the decline of its working-age population.
The report stated that productivity growth is slowing and that China’s investment-heavy approach to driving the economy will result in declining returns over time.
(Sanjeev Sharma can be reached at [email protected])
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