New Delhi, Nov 15, : .This may be the Asian century, but there are still many pitfalls for the region.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), said in a report that contested geopolitics were the most prominent.
In fact, the Asia region is now looking similar to late 19th-century Europe (not a good sign), with territorial disputes among neighbouring countries; intensifying competition between a rising power (China) and an established one that is reluctant to cede influence (the US); and the lack of a recognised arbitration framework with which to manage this conflict, the report said.
The report stated that the Asia region now looks much like late 19th-century Europe.It has territorial disputes between neighbouring countries, intensifying competition between rising powers (China and the US), and a lack of an arbitration framework to help manage these conflicts.
A geopolitical split in Asia, driven by the US-China rivalry, would derail Asia’s economic prospects, the EIU said.According to the EIU, a geopolitical divide in Asia caused by US-China rivalry would jeopardize Asia’s economic prospects.
Most countries are desperate to avoid taking sides, as they balance economic ties to China with support for the security role played in the region by the US.Many countries want to avoid being a sideline as they balance their economic ties with China with support for US security in the region.Their ability to be neutral, however, will be tested as superpower competition deepens and is dictated more by ideology.As superpower competition intensifies and ideology becomes more dominant, their ability to remain neutral will be challenged.
Any conflict in the South China Sea or a Chinese attempt to annex Taiwan, for instance, would force the issue.For example, a conflict in the South China Sea, or a Chinese attempt at annexe Taiwan, would make the issue more difficult.
If obliged to choose sides, Asia’s democracies, led by security allies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, will lean towards the US.Asia’s democracies will choose the US if they are forced to pick sides.They will be led by security allies like Australia, Japan, and South Korea.China only has one formal ally to call upon, and a weak one at that, in North Korea but, in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has developed a recognised economic bloc while simultaneously cultivating closer security ties with Russia.
China has only one official ally, and it is a weak one, which is North Korea.However, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has created an economic bloc and strengthened security ties with Russia.
This makes it challenging to predict the side that many Asian countries would choose.It is difficult to predict which side many Asian countries will choose.
The emergence of competing cold war-type blocs in Asia would have far-ranging consequences.It would have wide-ranging implications for Asia if there were competing blocs of the cold war type.
First of all, it would unwind the connections and supply chains that have been at the core of the region’s economic success.It would first unwind the supply and connection chains that have been the foundation of the region’s economic success.
Fiscal priorities in the region would shift from development needs to those of national defence, fuelling poverty and delaying economic convergence.The region’s fiscal priorities would shift away from developing needs to national defense, which will fuel poverty and delay economic convergence.
The broader policy agenda, including climate change, would also be sidelined.A broader policy agenda including climate change would also be ignored.
It is an outcome that nobody wants, but one that all must prepare for, EIU said.EIU stated that while it is not something that anyone wants, it is one that everyone must prepare for.
In a related report, EIU said around 15 years ago, even close observers of Chinese politics would have struggled to predict that Xi Jinping would become not only the leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), but also that he would reshape domestic politics and China’s international relations.EIU reported that 15 years ago, not only was it difficult for close observers to Chinese politics to have predicted that Xi Jinping, the leader of China’s Communist Party (CCP), would also reshape China’s domestic politics and international relations.
A low-profile regional leader at that time, the party elders that signed off on Mr Xi’s appointment as CCP leader in 2012 did so thinking he would be a consensus-builder and a safe pair of hands.The party elders who signed off on Mr Xi being appointed CCP leader in 2012 thought he would be a consensus-builder as well as a trusted pair of hands.
“On the contrary, Xi has proven ruthlessly ambitious and a consistent risk-taker.”Xi has been ruthlessly ambitious, and a consistent risk-taker.He has centralised power, dismantling the idea of collective leadership; backed an anti-corruption campaign that has affected all levels of society; attempted to defuse the debt problems that pose the greatest risk to China’s economic trajectory; launched hardline security and ideology drives in Hong Kong and Xinjiang; and gone toe to toe with three US presidents in what has become an all-encompassing US-China rivalry,” the EIU said.He has centralised power and dismantled the notion of collective leadership.
He also backed an anticorruption campaign that affected all levels of society.He tried to reduce the most serious debt risks to China’s economic growth.
The recent crackdown by the Chinese government to curb the country’s technology giants suggests Xi has no intention of letting up.The Chinese government’s recent crackdown on technology giants in China suggests that Xi is not going to stop.The individual’s role in shaping history can be difficult to discern against broader, structural forces, but it is difficult to imagine Xi’s predecessors or rival candidates for CCP leadership charting a similar course.It can be hard to see the individual’s role in shaping history against larger, structural forces.
However, it is not difficult to imagine Xi’s predecessors and rival candidates for CCP leadership charting a similar path.
Debate over the wisdom of the direction in which he has taken China at home and internationally will last for many years, but there can be little doubt over the force or permanence of his impact, the EIU said.
The EIU stated that while the debate over his wisdom in taking China home and abroad will continue for many years, there is little doubt about the power or permanence of his influence.
(Sanjeev Sharma can be reached at [email protected])
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