A solid 46.8 percent — that was BRS’s vote share in the 2018 Assembly elections.The Congress, the party with the second-highest vote share, was a distant 28.4 percent.There really was no competition.
The situation in the run-up to 30 November polling day for the Telangana Assembly election, however, is different.
Struggling with a stagnant-when-not-declining vote share, as well as anti-incumbency following two terms in office, the K Chandrashekhar Rao-led BRS has a contest on hand that is closer than it imagined.
Its closest and practically only rival — the Indian National Congress — has been on an upward trajectory with its campaigns, especially in rural areas.
In contrast, the BJP, which had till recently appeared confident of replacing the Congress as the primary contender against the BRS in Telangana, has been on a downward spiral.Even a change in state leadership has done little to help the BJP recuperate, and dissent continues with leaders threatening to shift camps.
In the last few months, the Congress has seen a spike, a slump, and a spike again in its momentum — the latest push coming from its announcement of six guarantees and the continued migration of BRS and BJP leaders to its camp.
The vote-share gap
The breather for the BRS, however, is the huge vote-share gap that Congress has to cover before it has a shot at replacing KCR’s party as the ruling dispensation in Telangana.
If one were to take an average from the internal estimates of two political parties, the BRS currently could hold some 42-43 percent vote share, the Congress seems to have gained ground, with its vote share hovering around 34-35 percent currently.The loss in vote share for BRS stems from anti-incumbency, and desertions of its leaders.
The numbers indicate that the Telangana Assembly election is set to be a bipolar contest.
With Chandrashekhar Rao as its undisputed mass leader, the BRS is aware that anti-incumbency will hurt its performance, but believes it simply isn’t enough to snatch away victory.
Congress strategy
The Congress, on the other hand, is said to be focusing on turning the tide in its favour by not just enchasing on the anti-incumbency, but getting its caste and community balance right in ticket distribution and appealing to two specific sections — the economically backward and the minority community.
Unlike in Karnataka, where the Congress announced one guarantees after the other to sustain excitement around the largescale welfare schemes, in Telangana it chose to announce all six of its guarantees at once.
The guarantees are specifically aimed at the economically weaker sections.
“My primary job as a ticket aspirant is to convey to people how much they will benefit in a month out of these guarantees.
How much additional cash will be in their hand.With different schemes put together, a household could save up to ₹15,000 a month,” a senior office bearer of Telangana Congress told media.
While some in the Congress suggest that the move to announce all guarantees at once was to create largescale impact among votes who are already used to big ticket welfare schemes announced by the BRS government, the more pragmatic leaders of the party point to the actual reason — paucity of time.
With BJP still struggling to put its house in order, the contest is clearly between BRS and Congress.
“The cadres still don’t understand why Bandi Sanjay was removed as state president.There is confusion over what is to be done from the state unit level to the booth level, but we hope for these issues to be sorted once candidates are announced,” said a BJP State Executive member.
BJP-BRS together narrative
While the AIMIM, although not in alliance with the BRS but enjoying “friendly ties” with it, is confident of winning around half a dozen seats in and around Hyderabad, Muslim community votes across the state is what Congress is eyeing.
Unlike in Karnataka, where the community consolidated firmly behind Congress in a contest directly with the BJP, in Telangana the community has no discontent against BRS or KCR.The Congress is heavily dependent on Muslim community voters to make a last-minute switch in its favour closer to the elections.
In the meanwhile, its leaders have been consistently trying to push one idea that “a vote for any party other than the Congress, is a vote for BJP”.
The grand old party has been partially successful in building a narrative that the BJP and BRS have a tacit understanding.BJP’s own leaders, like Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy, questioning the party’s softening stance on BRS MLC and KCR’s daughter K Kavitha in the Delhi liquor license case, has only helped in the narrative-building.
