Vishal Gulati New Delhi, November 21st : .India shocked the world during the two-week UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), where the UK was President.
India announced the highest climate change mitigation targets for a developing country.
These included the installation of non-fossil fuel electric capacity at 500 GW by 2030, sourcing 50% of our energy from renewables by 2030 and reducing projected emission of 1 billion tonnes between now and 2030.
They also include a reduction in carbon intensity of 45% over 2005 levels by 2030.
The climate negotiations of Conference of Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change were concluded and the difference to 1.5 degree Celsius was narrowed by the adoption of Glasgow Climate Pact.India, however, was blamed last minute for insisting on changing the “phase out” of all coal-fired power plants to “phase down”.
The question now is, “What does India’s future look like in coal?”
India is the home of seven percent (21GW) in the global coal project pipeline, representing 56 per cent South Asia’s total.The country is slowly moving away from coal at the national level.
A new E3G report says that significant progress has been made at state levels.
Experts believe that India’s target to produce 500GW of renewable electricity by 2030 is sufficient to supply its growing electricity demand.
Ember and Climate Risk Horizons have estimated that India’s current coal capacities along with 450GW renewable power would suffice to supply the country’s 2030 electricity needs.
According to the report, 27 GW in pre-permitted and allowed new coal power plants proposals were deemed unnecessary and are likely to end up being “zombie”, assets that neither die nor live.
If built, these surplus plants will drain scarce resources from India and hinder its renewable energy goals.They can still be canceled without having to compromise the ability of future demand.
A similar result is also shown by an analysis done by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
The country’s goal of 500 GW renewable power capacity in 2030, up from 100 GW at the moment, effectively reduces the need for coal-fired new capacity.It could be enough to meet incremental electricity demand between 2021-2030 without increasing coal generation.
China and India are the two biggest coal consumers.However, they have not pledged any carbon neutrality goals at COP26 but instead have resisted promises on domestic coal power sector.
China’s carbon neutrality promise leaves room for coal-fired power plants in China to continue operating for many decades.However, reaching carbon neutrality before 2060 would mean almost total elimination of any coal power stations not fitted with carbon capture.
Sunil Dahiya, a senior analyst at CREA explained to IANS that India’s coal production could reach its peak by 2026/27 if India implements the COP26 renewable energy targets.”After this we will witness a marked decrease in coal power generation.We don’t believe India needs to expand its capacity as existing coal power plants are overused.
Vibhuti Gag, Energy Economist at Lead India’s Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, explained that the term “phase down” means that coal can now need to be decreased.
It is unlikely that coal phase-out will happen in a matter of hours.This will take some time.It’s part of an eventual elimination.India’s net zero in 2070 implies that the country will have to phase out coal sooner than expected.This transition would be quicker if developed countries had access to technology and finance.
However, India already does more than it should.
India will do more to achieve a climate goal if it commits.
We have yet to see the promise of finance fulfilled by developed countries in 2009.They brokered trust when they promised it.Vibhuti expressed optimism that India had made a 40% non-fossil pledge in 2015.We are on track to fulfill it.”
Ulka Kelkar (Director, Climate Program at WRI India) stated that India’s climate and development challenges can not be reduced to one number: net-zero or coal.How fast the transition to renewable energy takes place over the next decade will have an impact on the speed of coal’s phase-down.This will require careful planning.
IANS was told by Aarti Khosla Director Climate Trends: “Instead getting locked up with legal talk and diplomatic quagmire it would be better to understand the implications for rapid scaling-up of renewable energy in countries like India.
No matter what language you use to describe the phase-down process or the phase-out approach, it is impossible to add coal.Many states have shown this fact by not adding any new coal over the past few years.
These statements have been made by Maharashtra and Gujarat, as well as Chhattisgarh.If real action is required, domestic imperatives will outweigh any slow pace in climate negotiations.
E3G’s report, which evaluated the world pipeline for new coal projects worldwide, found that India is slowly moving away from coal on a national scale, while significant progress is being made at state and local levels.
Officials from Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra announced that they would not be building new coal-fired power stations between 2019 and 2021.
A 2019 study found that many states could move away from coal-fired power because of a variety of socioeconomic and environmental factors.This includes the increasing price competitiveness of renewable energy sources.
India has the second-largest pre-construction pipeline at 21GW.
India currently has 34GW new coal capacities.These new coal capacities are on top of India’s 233GW existing fleet (11.3 percent of the total global).
India has had over 326GW of projects canceled since 2015.This includes more than 250GW shelved capacity.
For every 1GW of operation, almost 7GW have been cancelled.
In India, however, the renewable tariffs are among the most affordable in the world.They reached a new record low at Rs 1.99/kWh ($ 0.0226/kWh) December 2020.
Vishu Mal Gulati may be reached at [email protected]
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