Islamabad 12th September : The most devastating floods in the past few decades have caused destruction in Pakistan one of the most populous nations of South Asia.The floods have impacted the country’s 220 million residents’ lives either directly or indirectly.
Over 1,300 have died with 81 of of 160 districts being directly affected by flooding, which has left around 33 million homeless.The sweltering heatwaves that were followed by the rains and glacial melting have been a common occurrence this year, revealing the harsh reality that, despite all discussions and agreements, the international community has not been able to stop and reverse climate change.But Pakistan’s case is a unique one.
Beyond the human suffering Beyond the human losses, the country’s economic administrators face the most difficult task ahead of them as floods destroyed the country’s roads and communications network, damaged an unimaginable number of homes and destroyed thousands of acres of crops.
Niaz Murtaza, a politician and economist, describes the current crises as “a triple whammy” that combines the political, economic and natural.
“The poor were suffering in the beginning due to of unemployment, inflation and political insanity.
The flooding has forced millions into ruin,” he said.
However the political masters are not only engaged in disputing and making allegations against one another however, they have also created an blame game on social media, as is the norm with the aim of blaming India for the chaos caused by the floods.
The flurry of propaganda, however does not change the fact that the Pakistan administration and institutions have completely failed in meeting their obligations to its citizens.
As absurd as it may be and as absurd as it may be, it does not excuse the government of Pakistan who has failed its people in the form of financial mismanagement, deep-seated corruption, and the blatant nepotism in the system.
To this are the improper strategies and goals of Islamabad that have played a key role in the creation of political instability and economic crisis.The floods have only helped it.
The natural disaster has hit Pakistan and the economy is passing through the challenging phase of numerous challenges, which include Balance of Payment (BoP) crisis heavy debt burden and the issue of solvency.The economic crisis that has been lingering for a long time is likely to grow worse despite the conclusion of discussions with the IMF to release of extended Fund Facility credit.
The the Finance Minister Miftah Ismail estimates that the country has suffered losses of “at minimum $10 billion” independent analysts, like Uzar Younus Director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia centre and economist Ammar Habib Khan have put the figure at $15-20 billion.They expect it to grow as more information is arriving with an extremely slow pace.
Infrastructure is deteriorating with the floods that cover 1/3 of the nation, forcing 37 percent of the population into poverty.Pakistan is both literally and metaphorically submerged as reported by Nasir Jamal.
It could take some time before the damage are assessed.Even before the floods 60% of the people in need were suffering from malnutrition, hunger and related illnesses, and the numbers are likely to go up in the coming months.
In light of the huge loss and the massive loss of the IMF’s $1.2 billion credit appears to be a tiny amount.Pakistan was previously wounded, and is now bleeding.The flooding will further intensify the economic crisis that first shown indications of diminishing with the IMF agreement.
Growth prospects, twin deficits and inflationary expectations are worsening, causing misery to the most vulnerable.Despite the increasing severity of the current situation securing lives and livelihoods of people has not yet been the top priority in the political elite who are basking in an ugly battle.
The true expense of the natural disaster is being paid by millions of poor children and pregnant women and elderly sick people huddled under the sky or in tents, vulnerable to disease, hunger and unhappiness as they wait for help.It will take several weeks before most can return to their homes as the land is drained and dried.It could take months, perhaps even years for the recovery process from the loss of housing animals, crops, livestock and land that can be used for cultivation.Covid-19 was able to disrupt exchanges in the economy without affecting the base of economic activity.However, the flood has destroyed livestock, crops, land bridges, etc.adversely affecting those in poverty and the economic system.And the insensitive class of politicians in Pakistan is engaged in political maneuvers and clever tactics against one another instead of present a united front in the moment of catastrophe.This is the nature of Pakistan’s political system.
In light of the importance of agriculture to the tune of one-fourth of the GDP, the country will be facing a significant revenue losses due to losses in crop production.According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s report of August 29 report, nearly 80 percent of crop yields in Sindh which account for approximately 30 percent of Pakistan’s cotton production were destroyed.
Nearly 70 per cent of the textile industry in Pakistan is a significant source of employment and foreign exchange, utilizes the cotton that is produced in Pakistan.The floods are likely to create a massive shortages of cotton, according to Abdul Rahim Nasir, Chairman of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association.
He said that instead of the previous average imports of cotton estimated at around 4 million bales Pakistan is now expected to import only the equivalent of the double of the amount, at a the potential price of $3 billion.
Shahrukh Wani, an Oxford economist, believes that the floods will make it very difficult for the government to cut the trade deficit since the country will have to import food items to “compensate” for the loss of crop, the sector of textiles will be in a bind because of a “potential lack” of cotton crop.
The sharp rise in inflation that climbed to 25 percent in July of July from an earlier year which is the most since May 1975 and is taking its own impact on the lives of many.The floods could further push up the cost of living and increase the dearth of even the most basic of things.
Amreen Soorani, Head of Research at JS Global Capital Ltd.,said that “the most important issue arising from flooding is the impact on inflation”.The IMF advised that escalating inflation could cause tensions and protests.
Islamabad has secured funding from the IMF to immediately take care of its economy to avoid the saturating foreign exchange crisis.
But, the problem will be far from being over for Islamabad.The advanced countries are more focused on the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine and are trying to cope with the economic downturn, while certain of the developing partners like Middle Eastern countries and China are struggling with the effects of donor fatigue Islamabad does not stand a chance to receive an international aid package of any kind.
At present, the primary issue facing the government is to meet the conditions of increasing taxes and implementing measures to reduce spending in the context of the agreement with the IMF for its bailout package.This could prove to be an unpopular decision and could ignite political conflict.
The current situation is ripe for massive protests in the context of the rising costs of living for a long time currently, which the opposition could profit of.The anger is growing throughout Pakistan in protest at the slowness of government efforts to help the poor.
The devastating floods have put downward pressure on the growth prospects.Early estimates suggest that growth rate could slow to around 2 percent.Premier Shehbaz Sharif has stated that recent flooding have caused greater damage than the previous floods in which the economic losses were valued as $9.7 billion.The flooding has already created supply chain issues with supply chain.
Even during natural disasters the politicians are concerned about their political agendas instead of permitting international aid organizations to import crucial food items from the neighboring country.
Cases following instances of corruption are surfacing, “you reveal mine, I will reveal yours” and the endless slugfest continues.
Instead of fighting the aftermath of the devastating natural disaster together, they are immersed in maneuvers and clever techniques and a regressive thought process of whether or to allow aid flows from India.
Some of the top officials in the government have proposed importing essential commodities like food and medicines from India and others are still victims of the old rigidity and anti-India mentality.
India is a definite reality of being the most powerful engine of South Asia’s growth plan as it is an accountable regional power and the largest and fastest-growing economy of the world, with an enormous market for exports and imports.
Islamabad must be aware that cooperating with neighbors does not diminish the importance of an affected country.
