New Delhi, December 11, 2011 : .According to the third ABP News/CVoter Battle of the States Tracker, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), are expected to win 39% and 34% respectively in Punjab.
But despite the lead in vote share, AAP may not win a majority out of 117 seats due to regional distribution of voter-base, as per the Tracker.
Also, Congress is benefiting from its Mayawati moment by installing the first Dalit CM in the state.
The move is consolidating its hold over Dalit voters.
We can conclude that the election is in Punjab without any wave.
The electorate, despite all of the social and political turmoil in Punjab is split.This situation could continue for another month and lead to a hung Vidhan Saha in Punjab, with AAP becoming the largest party closely followed by Congress.
The current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted between November 13 and December 9, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.
As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ persons across five states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa).It was conducted through CATI (telephonic survey).The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5 per cent and may not necessarily have factored in all the criteria.
Shiromani Akali Da (Badal), although it’s not yet out of the woods, is likely to poll 20% votes and could win about 20 seats in Badal strongholds.It seems that it is out of reach, however the party’s performance could be the tiebreaker between Congress and AAP.
The Amarinder Singh-BJP alliance does not seem to be adding up to anything significant.Currently, the vote share and seat share of the grouping is projected to remain in lower single digits.
However, the alliance’s performance may influence the fate of around 30 seats.
Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is preferred by 33 per cent voters as CM in 2022 polls.
Interestingly, this number corresponds to the headcount of Dalit population in Punjab.Congress President Navjot Singh Sidhu is preferred by only 5 per cent voters, Arvind Kejriwal is preferred by 24 per cent voters and Sukhbir Singh Badal is the choice of 18 per cent voters.
Regionally, the Dalit population is more concentrated in Doaba and Majha regions of Punjab that account for a total of 48 seats.The Congress is projected to win 28 out of its 42 seats from these two regions.
AAP is doing significantly better in Malwa region that accounts for the remaining 69 seats.It is expected to win 41 of its 53 seats from Malwa alone.
Therefore, the three X factors that will ultimately decide the Punjab verdict 2022 are the relative sweep of AAP and Congress in their respective strongholds, the performance of Akali Dal and its potential impact on AAP and Congress, and the ability of Amarinder Singh to dent the prospects of Congress.
For now, despite a reenergised and repositioned political stance, Congress is facing more headwinds than AAP.Also, the rural peasantry, fresh from the protests at Singhu border, is unlikely to fully trust the Akali Dal or the Congress.Both these parties have baggage with Jat farmers who dominate the rural polity.
The survey projections for Jat Sikh politics are indicative of a growing vacuum.Between 1997 and 2021 Punjab was ruled by a Badal-Amarinder duopoly.
However, no Jat leader has enough support to take over the leadership role.Some sections like Sukhbir Baal, but others prefer Bhagwant Man.Despite the large media images projected, Navjot Singhu’s theatrical acts haven’t helped him get traction in the state political arena.
Regardless of AAP’s continued lead, there is a distinct possibility of amplification of the current trend of convergence with Congress’ vote share.
If the race tightens any further, the eventual outcome will be decided on a seat-by-seat basis.
Therefore, candidate selection may become very important.
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