New York, Aug 9 : As the nighttime temperature rises due to climate change, so will your chance of dying — almost six times more in the future because of the heat that can disrupt sleep patterns A new study from around the world has warned. Extremely hot nights caused by climate change are expected to increase mortality rates all over the world by as much as 60% at the close of the century, according research from China, South Korea, Japan, Germany and the US.
The night’s heat can disrupt the normal physiological processes of sleeping, and a lack of sleep can result in immune system harm and an increased risk of chronic diseases, inflammation and mental health ailments, according to the study that was published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
“The dangers of rising temperatures at night were not often considered,” said study co-author Yuqiang Zhang who is a climate scientist from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in the US.
“The frequency and intensity of hot nights could increase by more than 30 percent and 60% in the 2100s in comparison with just 20 percent increase for the average temperature of the day,” said Zhang from the department of engineering and environmental sciences at the Gillings School.
The results indicate that the intensity of hot nighttime events is likely to triple by 2090, going from 20.4 degrees celsius up to 39.7 degree celsius in 28 cities in east Asia which will increase the amount of diseases caused by excessive heat that can disrupt normal sleeping patterns.
This is the first research study to quantify the impact of warmer nights on mortality due to climate change risk.
The results revealed that the cost of mortality may be much higher than what is estimated by the daily temperature increases and suggests that warming due to climate change could have a significant impact, even if it is accompanied by restrictions imposed by the Paris Climate Agreement.
The team determined the mortality rate due to excessive temperatures in 28 cities in China, South Korea and Japan between the years 1980 and 2015.They then applied the results to two climate modeling scenarios that were aligned with carbon-reduction models adapted by the respective national governments.
By using this model they were able determine that between the years 2016 and 2100, the likelihood of dying from extreme heat nights will increase by nearly six-fold.
This prediction is far greater than the risk of death from daily average warming predicted by models of climate change.
“From our research, we suggest that in looking at the burden of disease caused by non-optimum temperatures local policymakers and governments must consider the additional health effects of the inconsistent temperatures that occur throughout the day,” said Haidong Kan who is a professor at Fudan University in China.
Since the study only covered the cities of three countries, Zhang declared that “extrapolation of these findings to the entire East Asia region or other regions should be handled with caution”.
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